The effect of alcohol and drug consumption on academic performance : a treatment effect evaluation

It is often argued that consumption of alcohol, tobacco and drugs is detrimental to the cognitive abilities of teenagers. In order to disentangle a possible causal effect of these substances use from a self-selection bias, we control for pupils previous performance and for their previous rate of progression applying a DiDiD strategy. Using the NELS 1988 panel dataset, we find that the effects of alcohol and tobacco on test scores disappear once the selection bias is controlled for (this does not preclude long term detrimental effects). However, we find reliable evidence that heavy use of drugs (marijuana and cocaine) has direct detrimental effects on educational achievements. Hence, our results may have significant policy implications.

Review of the evidence of lymphedema treatment effect

Lymphedema treatment aims to alleviate symptoms, prevent progression and reduce risk of skin infection. Mainstream treatment options have been investigated in over 160 studies. Findings from these studies have been included in at least one of more than 20 literature reviews. A critique of these reviews was undertaken to summarise efficacy findings. The quality of the reviews was evaluated and gaps in the research identified, to better guide clinical practice. Overall, there was wide variation in review methods. The quality of studies included in reviews, in terms of study design and reporting overall has been poor. Reviews consistently concluded that complex physical therapy is effective at reducing limb volume. Volume reductions were also reported following the use of compression garments, pumps and manual lymphatic drainage. However, greatest improvements were reported when these treatments formed a combined treatment program. Large, well-designed, evaluated and reported randomised, controlled trials are needed to evaluate and compare treatments. Consistent outcome measures will allow better quality reviews and meta-analysis in the future.

Comparison of treatment effect sizes associated with surrogate and final patient relevant outcomes in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources All randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. Study selection Two independent reviewers selected trials. Data extraction Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. Results 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. Conclusions Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

Randomized trial of effect of bifocal and prismatic bifocal spectacles on myopic progression

Objective: To determine whether bifocal and prismatic bifocal spectacles could control myopia in children with high rates of myopic progression. ---------- Methods: This was a randomized controlled clinical trial. One hundred thirty-five (73 girls and 62 boys) myopic Chinese Canadian children (myopia of 1.00 diopters [D]) with myopic progression of at least 0.50 D in the preceding year were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 treatments: (1) single-vision lenses (n = 41), (2) +1.50-D executive bifocals (n = 48), or (3) +1.50-D executive bifocals with a 3–prism diopters base-in prism in the near segment of each lens (n = 46). ---------- Main Outcome Measures: Myopic progression measured by an automated refractor under cycloplegia and increase in axial length (secondary) measured by ultrasonography at 6-month intervals for 24 months. Only the data of the right eye were used. ---------- Results: Of the 135 children (mean age, 10.29 years [SE, 0.15 years]; mean visual acuity, –3.08 D [SE, 0.10 D]), 131 (97%) completed the trial after 24 months. Myopic progression averaged –1.55 D (SE, 0.12 D) for those who wore single-vision lenses, –0.96 D (SE, 0.09 D) for those who wore bifocals, and –0.70 D (SE, 0.10 D) for those who wore prismatic bifocals. Axial length increased an average of 0.62 mm (SE, 0.04 mm), 0.41 mm (SE, 0.04 mm), and 0.41 mm (SE, 0.05 mm), respectively. The treatment effect of bifocals (0.59 D) and prismatic bifocals (0.85 D) was significant (P < .001) and both bifocal groups had less axial elongation (0.21 mm) than the single-vision lens group (P < .001). ---------- Conclusions: Bifocal lenses can moderately slow myopic progression in children with high rates of progression after 24 months.

Effect of bifocal and prismatic bifocal spectacles on myopia progression in children

Importance Myopia is a significant public health problem, making it important to determine whether a bifocal spectacle treatment involving near prism slows myopia progression in children. Objective To determine whether bifocal and prismatic bifocal spectacles control myopia in children with high rates of myopia progression and to assess whether the treatment effect is dependent on the lag of accommodation and/or near phoria status. Design, Setting, and Participants This 3-year randomized clinical trial was conducted in a private practice. A total of 135 (73 female and 62 male) Chinese-Canadian children (aged 8-13 years; mean [SE] age, 10.29 [0.15] years; mean [SE] myopia, −3.08 [0.10] D) with myopia progression of at least 0.50 D in the preceding year were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 treatments. A total of 128 (94.8%) completed the trial. Interventions Single-vision lenses (control, n = 41), +1.50-D executive bifocals (n = 48), and +1.50-D executive bifocals with 3-Δ base-in prism in the near segment of each lens (n = 46). Main Outcomes and Measures Myopia progression (primary) measured using an automated refractor following cycloplegia and increase in axial length (secondary) measured using ultrasonography at intervals of 6 months for 36 months. Results Myopia progression over 3 years was an average (SE) of −2.06 (0.13) D for the single-vision lens group, −1.25 (0.10) D for the bifocal group, and −1.01 (0.13) D for the prismatic bifocal group. Axial length increased an average (SE) of 0.82 (0.05) mm, 0.57 (0.07) mm, and 0.54 (0.06) mm, respectively. The treatment effect of bifocals (0.81 D) and prismatic bifocals (1.05 D) was significant (P < .001). Both bifocal groups had less axial elongation (0.25 mm and 0.28 mm, respectively) than the single-vision lens group (P < .001). For children with high lags of accommodation (≥1.01 D), the treatment effect of both bifocals and prismatic bifocals was similar (1.1 D) (P < .001). For children with low lags (<1.01 D), the treatment effect of prismatic bifocals (0.99 D) was greater than of bifocals (0.50 D) (P = .03). The treatment effect of both bifocals and prismatic bifocals was independent of the near phoria status. Conclusions and Relevance Bifocal spectacles can slow myopia progression in children with an annual progression rate of at least 0.50 D after 3 years. These results suggest that prismatic bifocals are more effective for myopic children with low lags of accommodation.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

Nitrification (DMPP) and urease (NBPT) inhibitors had no effect on pasture yield, nitrous oxide emissions nor nitrate leaching under irrigation in a hot-dry climate

Modern dairy farming in Australia relies on substantial inputs of fertiliser nitrogen (N) to underpin economic production. However, N lost from dairy systems represents an opportunity cost and can pose a number of environmental risks. Nitrogen cycle inhibitors can be co-applied with N fertilisers to slow the conversion of urea to NH4+ to reduce losses via volatilisation, and slow the conversion of NH4+ to NO3- to minimize leaching of NO3- and gaseous losses via nitrification and denitrification. In a field campaign in a high input ryegrass-kikuyu pasture system we compared the soil N pools, losses and pasture production between a) urea coated with the nitrification inhibitor (3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate - DMPP) b) urea coated with the urease inhibitor (N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide - NBPT) and c) standard urea. There was no treatment effect (P>0.05) on soil mineral N, pasture yield, N2O flux nor leaching of NO3- cf. standard urea. We hypothesise that at our site, because gaseous losses were highly episodic (rainfall was erratic and displayed no seasonal rainfall nor soil wetting pattern) that there was a lack of coincidence of N application and conditions conducive to gaseous losses, thus the effectiveness of the inhibitor products was minimal and did not result in an increase in pasture yield. There remains a paucity of knowledge on N cycle inhibitors in relation to their effective use in field system to increase N use efficiency. Further research is required to define under what field conditions inhibitor products are effective in order to be able to provide accurate advice to managers of nitrogen in production systems.

A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.

An innovative approach to the assessment of nutrient intake in adults with type 2 diabetes : the development, trial and evaluation of a mobile phone photo/voice dietary record

Nutrition interventions in the form of both self-management education and individualised diet therapy are considered essential for the long-term management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The measurement of diet is essential to inform, support and evaluate nutrition interventions in the management of T2DM. Barriers inherent within health care settings and systems limit ongoing access to personnel and resources, while traditional prospective methods of assessing diet are burdensome for the individual and often result in changes in typical intake to facilitate recording. This thesis investigated the inclusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) to overcome limitations to current approaches in the nutritional management of T2DM, in particular the development, trial and evaluation of the Nutricam dietary assessment method (NuDAM) consisting of a mobile phone photo/voice application to assess nutrient intake in a free-living environment with older adults with T2DM. Study 1: Effectiveness of an automated telephone system in promoting change in dietary intake among adults with T2DM The effectiveness of an automated telephone system, Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes, designed to deliver self-management education was evaluated in terms of promoting dietary change in adults with T2DM and sub-optimal glycaemic control. In this secondary data analysis independent of the larger randomised controlled trial, complete data was available for 95 adults (59 male; mean age(±SD)=56.8±8.1 years; mean(±SD)BMI=34.2±7.0kg/m2). The treatment effect showed a reduction in total fat of 1.4% and saturated fat of 0.9% energy intake, body weight of 0.7 kg and waist circumference of 2.0 cm. In addition, a significant increase in the nutrition self-efficacy score of 1.3 (p<0.05) was observed in the TLC group compared to the control group. The modest trends observed in this study indicate that the TLC Diabetes system does support the adoption of positive nutrition behaviours as a result of diabetes self-management education, however caution must be applied in the interpretation of results due to the inherent limitations of the dietary assessment method used. The decision to use a close-list FFQ with known bias may have influenced the accuracy of reporting dietary intake in this instance. This study provided an example of the methodological challenges experienced with measuring changes in absolute diet using a FFQ, and reaffirmed the need for novel prospective assessment methods capable of capturing natural variance in usual intakes. Study 2: The development and trial of NuDAM recording protocol The feasibility of the Nutricam mobile phone photo/voice dietary record was evaluated in 10 adults with T2DM (6 Male; age=64.7±3.8 years; BMI=33.9±7.0 kg/m2). Intake was recorded over a 3-day period using both Nutricam and a written estimated food record (EFR). Compared to the EFR, the Nutricam device was found to be acceptable among subjects, however, energy intake was under-recorded using Nutricam (-0.6±0.8 MJ/day; p<0.05). Beverages and snacks were the items most frequently not recorded using Nutricam; however forgotten meals contributed to the greatest difference in energy intake between records. In addition, the quality of dietary data recorded using Nutricam was unacceptable for just under one-third of entries. It was concluded that an additional mechanism was necessary to complement dietary information collected via Nutricam. Modifications to the method were made to allow for clarification of Nutricam entries and probing forgotten foods during a brief phone call to the subject the following morning. The revised recording protocol was evaluated in Study 4. Study 3: The development and trial of the NuDAM analysis protocol Part A explored the effect of the type of portion size estimation aid (PSEA) on the error associated with quantifying four portions of 15 single foods items contained in photographs. Seventeen dietetic students (1 male; age=24.7±9.1 years; BMI=21.1±1.9 kg/m2) estimated all food portions on two occasions: without aids and with aids (food models or reference food photographs). Overall, the use of a PSEA significantly reduced mean (±SD) group error between estimates compared to no aid (-2.5±11.5% vs. 19.0±28.8%; p<0.05). The type of PSEA (i.e. food models vs. reference food photograph) did not have a notable effect on the group estimation error (-6.7±14.9% vs. 1.4±5.9%, respectively; p=0.321). This exploratory study provided evidence that the use of aids in general, rather than the type, was more effective in reducing estimation error. Findings guided the development of the Dietary Estimation and Assessment Tool (DEAT) for use in the analysis of the Nutricam dietary record. Part B evaluated the effect of the DEAT on the error associated with the quantification of two 3-day Nutricam dietary records in a sample of 29 dietetic students (2 males; age=23.3±5.1 years; BMI=20.6±1.9 kg/m2). Subjects were randomised into two groups: Group A and Group B. For Record 1, the use of the DEAT (Group A) resulted in a smaller error compared to estimations made without the tool (Group B) (17.7±15.8%/day vs. 34.0±22.6%/day, p=0.331; respectively). In comparison, all subjects used the DEAT to estimate Record 2, with resultant error similar between Group A and B (21.2±19.2%/day vs. 25.8±13.6%/day; p=0.377 respectively). In general, the moderate estimation error associated with quantifying food items did not translate into clinically significant differences in the nutrient profile of the Nutricam dietary records, only amorphous foods were notably over-estimated in energy content without the use of the DEAT (57kJ/day vs. 274kJ/day; p<0.001). A large proportion (89.6%) of the group found the DEAT helpful when quantifying food items contained in the Nutricam dietary records. The use of the DEAT reduced quantification error, minimising any potential effect on the estimation of energy and macronutrient intake. Study 4: Evaluation of the NuDAM The accuracy and inter-rater reliability of the NuDAM to assess energy and macronutrient intake was evaluated in a sample of 10 adults (6 males; age=61.2±6.9 years; BMI=31.0±4.5 kg/m2). Intake recorded using both the NuDAM and a weighed food record (WFR) was coded by three dietitians and compared with an objective measure of total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained using the doubly labelled water technique. At the group level, energy intake (EI) was under-reported to a similar extent using both methods, with the ratio of EI:TEE was 0.76±0.20 for the NuDAM and 0.76±0.17 for the WFR. At the individual level, four subjects reported implausible levels of energy intake using the WFR method, compared to three using the NuDAM. Overall, moderate to high correlation coefficients (r=0.57-0.85) were found across energy and macronutrients except fat (r=0.24) between the two dietary measures. High agreement was observed between dietitians for estimates of energy and macronutrient derived for both the NuDAM (ICC=0.77-0.99; p<0.001) and WFR (ICC=0.82-0.99; p<0.001). All subjects preferred using the NuDAM over the WFR to record intake and were willing to use the novel method again over longer recording periods. This research program explored two novel approaches which utilised distinct technologies to aid in the nutritional management of adults with T2DM. In particular, this thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base surrounding the use of PhRs through the development, trial and evaluation of a novel mobile phone photo/voice dietary record. The NuDAM is an extremely promising advancement in the nutritional management of individuals with diabetes and other chronic conditions. Future applications lie in integrating the NuDAM with other technologies to facilitate practice across the remaining stages of the nutrition care process.

Genotypes of the MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G genes act independently to reduce migraine disability in response to vitamin supplementation

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a chronic disabling neurovascular condition that may in part be caused by endothelial and cerebrovascular disruption induced by hyperhomocysteinaemia. We have previously provided evidence indicating that reduction of homocysteine by vitamin supplementation can reduce the occurrence of migraine in women. The current study examined the genotypic effects of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and methionine synthase reductase (MTRR) gene variants on the occurrence of migraine in response to vitamin supplementation. METHODS: This was a 6-month randomized, double-blinded placebo-controlled trial of daily vitamin B supplementation (B(6), B(9) and B(12)) on reduction of homocysteine and of the occurrence of migraine in 206 female patients diagnosed with migraine with aura. RESULTS: Vitamin supplementation significantly reduced homocysteine levels (P<0.001), severity of headache in migraine (P=0.017) and high migraine disability (P=0.022) in migraineurs compared with the placebo effect (P>0.1). When the vitamin-treated group was stratified by genotype, the C allele carriers of the MTHFR C677T variant showed a higher reduction in homocysteine levels (P<0.001), severity of pain in migraine (P=0.01) and percentage of high migraine disability (P=0.009) compared with those with the TT genotypes. Similarly, the A allele carriers of the MTRR A66G variants showed a higher level of reduction in homocysteine levels (P<0.001), severity of pain in migraine (P=0.002) and percentage of high migraine disability (P=0.006) compared with those with the GG genotypes. Genotypic analysis for both genes combined indicated that the treatment effect modification of the MTRR variant was independent of the MTHFR variant. CONCLUSION: This provided further evidence that vitamin supplementation is effective in reducing migraine and also that both MTHFR and MTRR gene variants are acting independently to influence treatment response in female migraineurs.

The effects of vitamin supplementation and MTHFR (C677T) genotype on homocysteine-lowering and migraine disability

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a prevalent and debilitating disease that may, in part, arise because of disruption in neurovascular endothelia caused by elevated homocysteine. This study examined the homocysteine-lowering effects of vitamin supplementation on migraine disability, frequency and severity and whether MTHFRC677T genotype influenced treatment response. METHODS: This was a randomized, double-blind placebo, controlled trial of 6 months of daily vitamin supplementation (i.e. 2 mg of folic acid, 25 mg vitamin B6, and 400 microg of vitamin B12) in 52 patients diagnosed with migraine with aura. FINDINGS: Vitamin supplementation reduced homocysteine by 39% (approximately 4 mumol/l) compared with baseline, a reduction that was greater then placebo (P=0.001). Vitamin supplementation also reduced the prevalence of migraine disability from 60% at baseline to 30% after 6 months (P=0.01), whereas no reduction was observed for the placebo group (P>0.1). Headache frequency and pain severity were also reduced (P<0.05), whereas there was no reduction in the placebo group (P>0.1). In this patient group the treatment effect on both homocysteine levels and migraine disability was associated with MTHFRC677T genotype whereby carriers of the C allele experienced a greater response compared with TT genotypes (P<0.05). INTERPRETATION: This study provides some early evidence that lowering homocysteine through vitamin supplementation reduces migraine disability in a subgroup of patients. Larger trials are now warranted to establish whether vitamin therapy is a safe, inexpensive and effective prophylactic option for treatment of migraine and whether efficacy is dependant on MTHFRC677T genotype.

Reproducibility of gastric emptying in overweight and obese males

Background & aim To understand whether any change in gastric emptying (GE) is physiologically relevant, it is important to identify its variability. Information regarding the variability of GE in overweight and obese individuals is lacking. The aim of this study was to determine the reproducibility of GE in overweight and obese males. Methods Fifteen overweight and obese males [body mass index 30.3 (4.9) kg/m2] completed two identical GE tests 7 days apart. GE of a standard pancake breakfast was assessed by 13C-octanoic acid breath test. Data are presented as mean (±SD). Results There were no significant differences in GE between test days (half time (t1/2): 179 (15) and 176 (19 min), p = 0.56; lag time (tlag): 108 (14) and 104 (8) min, p = 0.26). Mean intra-individual coefficient of variation for t1/2 was 7.9% and tlag 7.5%. Based on these findings, to detect a treatment effect in a paired design with a power of 80% and α = 0.05, minimum mean effect sizes for t1/2 would need to be ≥14.4 min and tlag ≥ 8.1 min. Conclusions These data show that GE is reproducible in overweight and obese males and provide minimum mean effect sizes required to detect a hypothetical treatment effect in this population.